There's one question we've asked ourselves at every decision point since launching the portfolio in June 2023: are the people fulfilling the demand for AI still acting like they don't have enough supply?
The answer, nearly three years in, is still yes — and it's getting more emphatic. One hyperscaler doubled its expected 2026 capex to as much as $185 billion. Another committed $200 billion. A third said they're "monetizing capacity as fast as we can install it." Taiwan Semi reported a 20% jump in revenue in January — typically a quiet month — and greenlighted a $45 billion capex plan.
The CEO of the most important company in the AI revolution repeated one line on a recent $68 billion quarter earnings call: "compute equals revenue." Every dollar of compute capacity added is being monetized the moment it comes online. It's not speculative spending. The AI output is profitable. The customers are capacity-constrained.
The AI compute landscape is not evenly distributed. A small number of companies have the scale, the capital, the data, and the infrastructure to compete for AI workloads. Among them, there is a hierarchy: the hyperscalers with the biggest data center footprints, the surprise entrant that's building capacity faster than anyone expected, and the platform companies with built-in audiences of billions that give them a distribution moat no startup can replicate.
We've invested across this hierarchy since early 2024. One of our compute positions was trading at roughly the same multiple as the S&P 500 when we added it — the cheapest in its peer group despite controlling the largest and most diverse dataset in the world. Another was projecting 65% revenue growth on an annual run-rate basis, driven entirely by data center demand.
The capex numbers are eye-popping. But the signal is what matters: these companies are spending because the demand justifies it. As long as that signal holds, the infrastructure companies that supply them are in the sweet spot.
Which cloud companies are on the right side of the AI capex arms race? Which ones have structural advantages the market is undervaluing? Members get the specific positions and thesis.
See the Compute Positions →The capex arms race reshapes the competitive landscape daily. We track every earnings call, every capex revision, and every market signal — members get the interpretation.
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